Pakistan Witnesses 24% YoY Decline in Petroleum Sales for October 2023

Pakistan Witnesses 24% YoY Decline in Petroleum Sales for October 2023

Pakistan experienced a substantial 24 percent YoY decline in total petroleum sales during the month of October 2023, with experts pointing to various factors contributing to this downturn.

In October 2023, Pakistan recorded total petroleum sales of 1.26 million tons, reflecting a significant 24 percent YoY drop, according to data from analysts at Arif Habib Limited. The decline in sales can be attributed to several key factors, including the rising prices of petroleum products, a general economic slowdown, and decreased consumption of Furnace Oil (FO), partly due to the increasing use of new coal-based power plants.

Specifically, the sales of petrol saw a 15 percent decline, amounting to 0.58 million tons in October 2023. Similarly, High-Speed Diesel (HSD) dispatches also witnessed a substantial 21 percent YoY decrease, totaling 0.56 million tons during the same period. However, the most pronounced drop was seen in Furnace Oil (FO) sales, which plummeted by a staggering 74 percent to a mere 0.05 million tons in October 2023.

On a month-on-month (MoM) basis, the petroleum sales statistics for October 2023 showed a noteworthy 28 percent increase, primarily driven by a decline in petrol and HSD prices. Petrol and HSD sales saw an upsurge of 12 percent and 42 percent MoM, respectively, while FO offtake dropped by 37 percent compared to the previous month.

Over the first four months (July – October) of the fiscal year 2023-24, the sales of total petroleum products reported a 17 percent YoY decline, with total sales amounting to 5.08 million tons compared to 6.15 million tons in the same period of the previous year. The breakdown by product category showed a reduction in sales for all three major categories: petrol, HSD, and FO, amounting to 2.43 million tons, 2.00 million tons, and 0.40 million tons, respectively.

Analyzing the performance of different companies, it was noted that Pakistan State Oil (PSO) experienced a 26 percent YoY reduction in offtake in October 2023, attributed to a decline in sales of petrol, HSD, and FO by 14 percent, 20 percent, and 95 percent, respectively. Other major players like Attock Petroleum Limited (APL) and Shell Pakistan (SHEL) also witnessed YoY declines of 10 percent and 29 percent, respectively. However, HASCOL stood out with a substantial 19 percent year-on-year increase in sales for the same period.

During the first four months of fiscal year 2023-24 (4MFY24), petroleum sales of PSO, SHEL, and APL declined by 21 percent, 20 percent, and 8 percent YoY, respectively. In contrast, HASCOL’s offtake demonstrated a healthy growth of 30 percent YoY in 4MFY24.

In terms of market share, PSO saw a 2.1 percent decline, dropping to 50.1 percent in 4MFY24 from 52.2 percent in 4MFY23. Conversely, SHEL’s market share increased by 0.2 percent, reaching 7.3 percent YoY in 4MFY24. Furthermore, the market share of APL and HASCOL in 4MFY24 increased to 10.4 percent (compared to 9.3 percent in the same period last year) and 2.8 percent (up from 1.8 percent in the previous year), respectively. Meanwhile, other Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) maintained a stable market share of 29.6 percent in 4MFY24.