Karachi, April 6, 2025 – The Pakistani rupee is expected to maintain relative stability in the coming week, despite fresh tariffs imposed by the United States on Pakistani exports.
After a shortened trading week due to the Eid holidays, the rupee showed only minor changes in value. It closed at 280.56 against the US dollar in the interbank market on Thursday and slightly improved to 280.47 on Friday.
Markets had remained closed from March 31 to April 2 for Eidul Fitr, limiting activity to just two trading sessions. However, despite the low volume, the rupee maintained a tight trading range, suggesting no immediate volatility.
The calm comes in the wake of a major announcement by US President Donald Trump, who introduced new tariffs on multiple countries, including a steep 29 percent tariff on imports from Pakistan. The move has raised concerns over Pakistan’s trade balance, particularly since the United States is its largest single-country export market. In 2024, the US imported $5.46 billion worth of goods from Pakistan, contributing to a $3.33 billion trade surplus. With exports in the first two months of 2025 already reaching $1 billion, projections had pointed to a $6 billion figure for the year—prior to the tariffs.
Economic analysts believe that while the tariffs could eventually pressure Pakistan’s exports, the effect on the rupee may be limited. According to market watchers, competitive devaluations by other nations and potential export losses between $1 billion and $1.5 billion might weigh on the economy, but a sharp drop in the rupee is not anticipated.
The government is actively working to present a narrative of economic revival, which includes recent successes with the IMF, sharply lower inflation, aggressive interest rate cuts, reduced energy tariffs, and record-high remittances. In such a climate, any drastic movement in the rupee could undermine confidence, which policymakers are keen to avoid.
Experts suggest that while the rupee may experience a gradual depreciation — perhaps by 5 to 10 paisa per week — it will be a managed slide rather than a sudden fall. Meanwhile, it is crucial for Pakistan to engage diplomatically with the US to renegotiate more favorable trade terms and potentially reverse or mitigate the impact of the tariffs.