KARACHI – April 20, 2025: The Pakistani rupee is expected to remain stable against the dollar in the coming week, supported by favorable economic indicators and a positive outlook from international institutions.
Analysts believe that the local rupee will likely trade within a narrow band, continuing the trend seen over the past week.
During recent trading sessions, the rupee stayed range-bound, fluctuating between 280.46 and 280.71 per dollar in the interbank market. This stability is largely attributed to the country’s all-time high current account surplus of $1.2 billion for March. Experts are now forecasting a full-year surplus of around $1.5 billion—something Pakistan hasn’t seen in over 20 years.
Financial terminal Tresmark noted that while global markets are facing uncertainty, the situation in Pakistan is “even stranger”—in a good way. The massive surplus has reduced pressure on the rupee, and a weakening dollar globally has added to the local currency’s resilience. The dollar index has dipped below 100 and could fall further toward 92, making the greenback weaker relative to emerging market currencies like the rupee.
Further support for the rupee comes from a recent credit rating upgrade. Fitch Ratings elevated Pakistan’s sovereign rating from ‘CCC+’ to ‘B-’, citing fiscal discipline and progress under the International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan programme. Pakistan expects $2.3 billion in upcoming IMF disbursements, including $1 billion under the Extended Fund Facility and $1.3 billion from the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF).
Despite this positive momentum, the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) foreign exchange reserves fell by $127 million to $10.57 billion due to external debt repayments. Analysts still warn of managed, gradual depreciation—around 5 paisa per week—given consistent outflows from T-bills and profit repatriations.
The real effective exchange rate (REER) currently sits at 101.6, keeping the rupee competitive on global terms. As global economies tactfully devalue their currencies amidst trade wars, Pakistan seems poised to manage its rupee-dollar dynamics carefully.