Weekly Review: Market to remain in red on rate cut pessimism

KARACHI: The equity market likely to stay in red due to pessimism on high inflation, which created impressions the rate may not be cut in near future.

Analysts at Arif Habib Limited forecast that the market to remain in the red following pessimism created from high inflation readings which have led to apprehensions over the rate cut which may not materialize soon.

Moreover, shortfall in tax revenue targets (PKR 750bn shortfall expected for FY20) have added to concerns over the fiscal deficit recovery as well as possibility of more tax revenue measures.

The KSE-100 index is currently trading at a PER of 7.0x (2020) compared to Asia Pac regional average of 12.2x and while offering DY of around 6.8 percent versus around 2.8 percent offered by the region.

Correction phase seems to have set in, with the benchmark KSE-100 Index of Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) trading in the red another week. Aggravated inflationary pressure (14.6 percent YoY for Jan’20 – 10-Yr high) and turmoil in global markets following the outbreak of the Corona Virus have been the primary reasons behind the continuation of the selling spree in the local bourse.

Further stress was created in the market from the rise in bond yields following the latest PIB auction in which the 3-Yr Bond cut-off yield increased by 30 bps to 12.05 percent, 5-Yr Bond yield increased by 21 bps to settle at 11.4 percent and the 10-Yr bond yield increased by 10 bps to 11 percent.

The KSE-100 Index closed at 40,144 points (down 1,487 points WoW).

Sector-wise negative contributions came from i) Oil & Gas Exploration Companies (-376ts), ii) Commercial Banks (-241 points), iii) Oil & Gas Marketing Companies (-150 points), iv) Fertilizer (-140 points), and v) Cement (-125 points). Scrip-wise negative contributions were led by PPL (-158 points), OGDC (-125 points), HBL (-104 points), PSO (-74 points) and DAWH (-57 points).

Foreign selling this week clocked-in at USD 14.2 million compared to a net buy of USD 8.0 million last week. Selling was witnessed in Cement (USD 7.0 million) and Exploration & Production (USD 5.1 million).

On the domestic front, major buying was reported by Insurance Companies (USD 13.7 million) and Individuals (USD 7.7 million). Average Volumes settled at 168 million shares (down by 11 percent WoW) while average value traded clocked-in at USD 45 million (down by 1 percent WoW).

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