SHANGHAI, May 22, 2024—J.P. Morgan has revised its forecast for China’s economic growth in 2024, now estimating a 5.2 percent increase, up from the previous projection of 4.9 percent.
This announcement was made by Zhu Haibin, J.P. Morgan’s chief China economist, during the J.P. Morgan Global China Summit in Shanghai on Wednesday, as reported by Xinhua.
Zhu attributed this optimistic revision to China’s impressive economic performance in the first quarter of 2024, which saw a 5.3 percent year-on-year growth. This robust start surpassed market expectations and set a positive tone for the year. He emphasized three main highlights that contributed to this growth: a notable increase in industrial added value, diversification of export products and destinations, and the rise of new technologies and industries.
“The Chinese economy’s industrial sector grew faster than the overall economy, signaling strong industrial activity and production efficiency,” Zhu noted. He also highlighted the successful diversification of China’s exports, which not only expanded in volume but also reached new global markets. Furthermore, emerging technologies and new industries have become significant growth drivers, reflecting China’s strategic shift towards innovation and high-tech development.
Zhu’s forecast also considered the stability of the renminbi, China’s currency. He projected that the exchange rate of the yuan would remain largely stable throughout the year. “Although the yuan faces short-term depreciation pressures against the U.S. dollar, these will likely be mitigated as the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates in the latter half of the year,” Zhu explained. This anticipated move by the Federal Reserve is expected to ease downward pressure on the yuan, supporting its stability.
The J.P. Morgan Global China Summit, where these insights were shared, is a significant annual event that connects the global investment community with China’s market. Celebrating its 20th consecutive year, the summit has become one of the largest and most influential gatherings of business leaders in China. This year’s event continued to foster dialogue on China’s economic prospects and investment opportunities.
China’s economic outlook for 2024, as outlined by J.P. Morgan, underscores a cautiously optimistic view, supported by strong early-year performance and strategic economic shifts. As the year progresses, the interplay between domestic policies and global economic conditions will be crucial in shaping the actual growth trajectory. The updated forecast of 5.2 percent reflects confidence in China’s ability to navigate challenges and sustain momentum.
