Karachi, April 30, 2026 — Pakistan’s headline inflation is expected to surge into double digits in April 2026, driven by rising fuel and food prices, according to a research report by Insight Securities.
Analysts estimate the Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation at 10.1%, compared to 0.3% in the same period last year and 7.3% in the previous month.
Key Drivers Behind Inflation Surge
The projected rise in inflation is largely attributed to:
• Low base effect from last year
• Increase in food and housing costs
• Higher petrol and LPG prices
On a month-on-month (MoM) basis, inflation is expected to increase by 1.7%, mainly due to elevated energy prices.
Average Inflation Trend
The average inflation for the period July–April FY2025-26 is projected at 6.1%, compared to 4.9% in the same period last year.
Core inflation is estimated at:
• 7.1% for urban areas
• 8.4% for rural areas
SPI Basket: Major Price Changes
Within the Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI), several essential items saw sharp increases:
• LPG: +36.0%
• Motor fuel: +20.3%
• Tomatoes: +18.0%
• Onions: +17.1%
• Eggs: +11.0%
Meanwhile, some relief was observed in:
• Fresh fruits: -9.5%
• Fresh vegetables: -4.7%
• Wheat: -4.3%
• Sugar: -0.6%
• Gur: -0.4%
SBP Tightens Monetary Policy
The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has already responded by increasing the policy rate by 100 basis points in its latest Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting.
The move reflects a proactive stance to curb inflationary pressures, particularly as CPI is expected to breach the 10% threshold.
External Risks and Economic Outlook
Analysts noted that global geopolitical tensions, particularly involving the United States and Iran, have contributed to higher energy prices, impacting domestic inflation.
Despite challenges, Pakistan’s economy has shown resilience due to stable foreign exchange reserves and support from friendly countries and multilateral institutions.
However, experts warn that prolonged geopolitical uncertainty and supply chain disruptions could further strain the economy, especially for emerging markets like Pakistan.
Outlook
Inflationary pressures are likely to persist in the near term, with fuel prices, global commodity trends, and monetary policy decisions playing a critical role in shaping Pakistan’s economic outlook.