Weekly Review: Political uncertainty, FATF upcoming review remain major concerns for market

Weekly Review: Political uncertainty, FATF upcoming review remain major concerns for market

KARACHI: The market may move next week with major concerns of investors related to political uncertainty in the country and upcoming review of Financial Action Task Force (FATF).

However, analysts at Arif Habib Limited said that the market to remain green due to: Higher interest of local individuals in the market; expectation of better results especially for Cements, OMCs, E&Ps, Autos, Textile, Technology, Steel, Chemicals, and Consumer Goods; improvement on macro-economic front amid strengthening PKR/USD parity; and Coronavirus daily infection ratio continuing to remain low.

On the other hand, upcoming key announcements like Automobile sales data (released by PAMA) might attract investors’ interest in automobile sector.

However, key concerns remain: FATF outcome which is expected this month; Higher current account deficit expected for September 2020; Political uncertainty; and Increase in gas and electricity tariffs.

The benchmark KSE-100 of Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) is currently trading at a PER of 7.4x (2021) compared to Asia Pac regional average of 14.0x while offering a dividend yield of around 6.2 percent versus 2.7 percent offered by the region.

This week trading commenced on a negative note due to i) Release of CPI by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics at 9.04 percent which was higher than market consensus, Redemption in mutual funds, Political noise on account of opposition parties’ alliance under the banner of Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), Increase in Trade deficit by 37 percent MoM to USD 2.39 billion in September 2020, and Pressure on global equities.

On Tuesday, negative performance remained short lived attributable to international oil prices (WTI) increasing by 5 percent DoD (benefitting E&P scrips) and robust cement dispatches which improved investors sentiments in cyclical sectors.

As a result, the KSE-100 index closed at 40,798 points, up by 728 points or 1.82 percent WoW.

Contribution to the upside was led by i) Cements (164 points), ii) Commercial Banks (127 points), iii) Oil and Gas Exploration Companies (94 points), iv) Oil and Gas Marketing Companies (76 points), and v) Textile Composite (61 points). Scrip-wise major gainers were HBL (86 points), OGDC (71 points), PSO (66 points), UBL (65 points), and LUCK (45 points). Whereas, scrip-wise major losers were COLG (32 points), BAHL (31 points) KEL (21 points), NBP (15 points) and PAKT (13 points).

Foreigners offloaded stocks worth of USD 7.45 million compared to a net sell of USD 8.25 million last week. Major selling was witnessed in Commercial Banks (USD 2.48 million) and E&P (USD 2.15 million). On the local front, buying was reported by Banks / DFIs (USD 7.14 million) followed by Insurance Companies (USD 6.63 million). Average volumes arrived at 417 million shares (up by 7 percent WoW) while average value traded settled at USD 81 million (down by 2 percent WoW).

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