Islamabad, November 27, 2024 – The finance ministry has expressed optimism about Pakistan’s economic recovery, citing improvements in key sectors and a positive outlook for the coming months.
In its monthly economic report for November 2024, the finance ministry highlighted ongoing support for the real economy, particularly in agriculture and industry. The wheat sowing season is progressing steadily, with the government ensuring the availability of essential inputs like fertilizers and seeds at reasonable prices. These measures aim to meet production targets and enhance self-sufficiency in staple crops.
Large-scale manufacturing (LSM) indicators, while still showing year-on-year declines, have displayed month-on-month resilience. Key sectors such as textiles and automobiles are witnessing gradual recoveries, supported by targeted government policies. The finance ministry emphasized that fiscal consolidation, contained inflation, and external stability will act as catalysts for sustained economic progress in the months ahead.
Inflation and External Sector Performance
The report projected that inflation will range between 5.8% and 6.8% in November, receding further to 5.6%–6.5% by December. A surplus in the current account for the July–October FY2025 period reflects improved external sector sustainability. Exports, imports, and worker remittances are expected to maintain their upward trends, with exports estimated between $2.5 billion and $3.0 billion, imports at $4.5 billion to $4.9 billion, and remittances at $2.8 billion to $3.3 billion for November.
The finance ministry credited this progress to the government’s disciplined monetary policy. The Monetary Policy Committee recently reduced the policy rate by 250 basis points to 15%, citing lower inflation rates, favorable global oil prices, and stable energy tariffs.
Stock Market Performance
The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) has mirrored this positive sentiment, with the KSE-100 index gaining 7,853 points in October 2024 and closing at 88,967 points. Market capitalization surged by Rs 917 billion during the month, supported by investor confidence and reduced inflationary pressures.
Agricultural Inputs and Policies
The Federal Committee on Agriculture (FCA) reported a significant increase in agricultural machinery imports, rising 70.9% to $39.6 million during July–October FY2025. Meanwhile, DAP fertilizer offtake rose by 92.2% during Rabi 2024-25, reflecting government initiatives like interest-free loans through the Punjab Government’s Kissan Card program.
Declining CPI Inflation
The consumer price index (CPI) recorded a sharp decline, averaging 8.7% for July–October FY2025, compared to 28.5% during the same period last year. The finance ministry attributed this to stable food prices, lower energy costs, and targeted fiscal measures.
The finance ministry reiterated its commitment to long-term structural reforms, aiming to bolster economic resilience, promote export-led growth, and ensure inclusive prosperity for all sectors of society.
