KARACHI: A big jump in petroleum prices in Pakistan has reduced the domestic sales of oil for the month of July 2022.
According to details released on Tuesday Pakistan oil sales commenced the fiscal year 2022/2023 with a decline of 26 per cent MoM to clock in at 1.44 million tons in July 2022 (lowest since February 2021).
Analysts at Topline Securities attributed the sharp decline in domestic oil sales to significant decline in all 3 petroleum products: High Speed Diesel (HSD) sales reduced by 38 per cent MoM to 444, 000 tons, Motor Gasoline (MOGAS) sales declined by 15 per cent MoM to 594,000 tons and Furnace Oil (FO) sales dipped by 23 per cent MoM to 350,000 tons.
Major reasons behind the decline in oil sales are, (i) Eid holidays during the first half of July where inter provincial transportation activity subsided which led to low HSD sales, and (ii) monsoon season across the country resulted in lower traffic on the roads.
Furthermore, increase in MOGAS and HSD prices by 26 per cent and 41 per cent since Jun-22 resulted in reduced demand of petroleum products and increase in usage of public transport and car pooling.
As compared to last year, Pakistan oil sales recorded 26 per cent YoY decline in July 2022 which is owed to drop in MOGAS and HSD Sales by 27 per cent YoY and 38 per cent YoY, respectively. Excluding FO, oil sales were down 31 per cent YoY and 26 per cent MoM in July 2022 to 1.1 million tons.
Among the listed entities, Pakistan State Oil (PSO) sales posted 27 per cent MoM decline to 760k tons (lowest since Feb-22), mainly due to decline in HSD sales by 38 per cent MoM. In terms of market share, PSO market share clocked in at 53 per cent in Jul-22 vs. 52 per cent in July 2021.
Other companies such as Attock Petroleum (APL) and Shell Pakistan (SHEL) also recorded drop of 29 per cent MoM and 37 per cent MoM to 142k tons and 100k tons, respectively.
For FY23E, the analysts expect oil sales to drop by 15-20 per cent YoY in FY23E, mainly due to (i) low growth estimated in agriculture sector, (ii) likely decline in auto sales, and (iii) increase in petroleum prices.