Oil consumption falls by 40pc during coronavirus lockdown

KARACHI: The oil consumption during last 15 days of the current month has declined by an average 40 percent due to lockdown to control outbreak of coronavirus.

Analysts at Topline Securities said that the oil consumption has declined to 26,000 tons/day compared to average consumption of 46,000 tons/day, which is due to the lockdowns announced by the provinces to control the outbreak of Covid-19.

Due to Covid-19 outbreak, Oil sales for March-2020 are expected to decline by 33 percent YoY (and 5 percent MoM) largely driven by declines in High Speed Diesel (HSD) and Furnace Oil (FO) volumes of 31 percent YoY and 62 percent YoY, respectively.

Ex-FO performance did not fare well either as 29 percent YoY decline is likely. The slight uptick in FO volumes witnessed in Jan-2020 has quickly disappeared with declines of 33 percent MoM and 51 percent MoM in Feb-2020 and Mar-2020, respectively.

During 9MFY20, overall volumes went down by 13 percent YoY (ex FO 8 percent) due to overall economic slowdown and impact of Covid-19.

PSO sales are likely to decline the most by 46 percent YoY. FO volumes are expected to decline by 88 percent YoY, HSD volumes by 34 percent YoY and MS volumes by 18 percent YoY.

HASCOL volumes are likely to decline by 35 percent YoY, but are expected to improve by 11 percent MoM.

APL and SHEL volumes are expected to decline by 30 percent YoY and 28 percent YoY, respectively during the month.

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