Karachi, April 24, 2026 – The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is widely expected to maintain its benchmark policy rate at 10.50% in the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting scheduled for April 27, 2026, as analysts anticipate a continued cautious stance amid global uncertainty and mixed domestic inflation signals.
According to a latest report by Arif Habib Limited (AHL), monetary policymakers are likely to prioritize economic stability over aggressive adjustments, particularly as external risks remain elevated. The brokerage noted that ongoing geopolitical tensions, including US–Iran friction, continue to influence global oil prices, creating volatility in international markets and indirectly impacting Pakistan’s inflation outlook.
“The world is navigating uncertainty, and in such conditions, monetary discipline remains essential. We expect the SBP to keep the policy rate unchanged at 10.5%,” AHL stated in its assessment ahead of the MPC meeting.
Domestically, inflation trends remain mixed but largely contained. Transport costs have shown sharp monthly fluctuations, rising by around 12% in March and expected to approach 15% in April. However, analysts suggest that these increases have not triggered broader second-round inflationary pressures, indicating that underlying price stability remains intact.
Looking ahead, AHL projects that headline inflation may temporarily rise into double digits in the fourth quarter of FY26, driven mainly by base effects and energy price pass-through rather than demand-side pressures. The brokerage maintains its forecast of average inflation at 7.1% for FY26 and 8.5% for FY27, while core inflation is expected to remain steady at around 8%.
The central bank had already maintained its policy rate at 10.50% in its previous meeting, aligning with market expectations amid concerns over rising global energy prices and geopolitical instability.
Market sentiment also reflects a divided outlook, with a majority of analysts expecting no change in the policy rate, while a smaller segment anticipates possible hikes depending on inflationary developments.
Economists suggest that the upcoming monetary policy decision will likely reinforce a wait-and-see approach, with further clarity expected in the next review cycle and the federal budget in June 2026, which could provide stronger signals for future monetary adjustments.