In an unprecedented climatic update, the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has announced that Pakistan is expected to experience effects of El Niño during May 2024.
This forecast comes at a crucial time when the country is preparing for the summer season, which often brings its own set of challenges.
El Niño, a well-known climate pattern, involves the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. This phenomenon has wide-ranging impacts on global weather patterns, often disrupting normal weather systems. For Pakistan, the implications of El Niño could be significant, considering the country’s diverse climatic zones and its dependence on agriculture.
According to the PMD’s latest report, despite the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) expected to be in a neutral phase, the concurrent positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is likely to influence weather patterns across the country. The PMD’s detailed forecast for May includes several key aspects:
Rainfall: Most parts of Pakistan are projected to receive near-normal levels of rainfall. However, regions such as Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, northern Balochistan, northern Punjab, and Kashmir might see slightly above normal rainfall. This variation is crucial for agricultural planning and water resource management.
Temperatures: Daytime maximum temperatures are likely to be slightly above normal in both northern and southern Pakistan, while central areas might experience temperatures that are normal to slightly below normal. Notably, warmer than normal minimum temperatures are expected nationwide, with the most significant increase anticipated over northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, and Kashmir.
Impacts on Agriculture: The forecasted above-normal precipitation in May could be a boon for agriculture in regions receiving it, aiding in crop growth during a critical time of the year. However, farmers in Upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the Potohar region, and Gilgit-Baltistan need to be vigilant against potential hailstorms and windstorms which could damage standing wheat crops during the harvest.
Other Risks: The PMD warns of possible dust storms, thunderstorms, and hailstorms triggered by current atmospheric conditions. These could pose significant risks to crops, buildings, and infrastructure. Furthermore, there is a noted likelihood of heat waves, particularly in the plain areas of the southern half of the country, which could lead to health and safety concerns for the population.
Environmental and Hydrological Benefits: Higher temperatures in high-altitude regions are expected to accelerate snowmelt in the Northern Areas. This presents an opportunity for increased irrigation and hydroelectric power generation, which could help alleviate some of the power shortages commonly experienced during the peak summer months.
The PMD advises all sectors to prepare for these conditions by adjusting agricultural practices, strengthening infrastructure, and implementing effective heat action plans. Public health systems need to be on alert to manage any rise in heat-related illnesses.
This forecast underscores the importance of proactive planning and adaptation strategies in the face of changing climate patterns. As Pakistan braces for the impacts of El Niño, the coming weeks will be crucial for governmental and local preparations to mitigate the adverse effects while maximizing potential benefits.
